All on track?

By Gareth Jones

While it is a busy week in Westminster, there is perhaps only one pressing issue as far as the vast majority of the public is concerned - namely, the lifting of the final restrictions on 21^st June and whether any developments or new cases threaten to delay or side-track the last stage of the roadmap and the return to normality. The most significant threat to that plan, at present, is the potential spread of the Indian variant, which is causing a spike in cases in various parts of the country.

The positive news over the past few days is that a Public Health England study provided data that suggested that, for both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines, two doses offer strong protection against the Indian variant (although levels of protection from one dose is down considerably against this variant). The slightly less positive news is that other official data was published over the weekend, which revealed that the Indian variant is more transmissible than other strains (such as the Kent strain discovered last year) and said that the data on how effective vaccines are at preventing serious disease was inconclusive.

This slightly mixed picture has led different people to draw different conclusions. Briefings this morning suggested that the government was cautiously optimistic about the data and the Prime Minister would make a statement in the coming days about the end of social distancing curbs. However, the Prime Minister’s spokesperson said this lunchtime that the social distancing review would be delayed, noting that the government needed more time to gather as much data as possible to inform its decisions – meaning the 21^st June date is still not guaranteed as the end of all social distancing.

While the government waits to make its big decision on coronavirus restrictions, the big event in Westminster this week will no doubt be Dominic Cummings’ appearance in front of the Health and Social Care Committee and Science and Technology Committee in Parliament this Wednesday. The Prime Minister’s former adviser is expected to give ‘unfiltered’ testimony on the UK’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and target his now-estranged former boss with accusations of incompetence and poor decision-making. No-one is sure what Cummings will say at the committee session, although the man himself has given an indication of the charges he might level at Boris Johnson and other key decision-makers in government through a 51-part Twitter thread, where he has criticised the government’s slowness to enter lockdowns and asserted that, in March 2020, the government was pursuing a herd immunity policy by allowing the virus to spread (thereby causing thousands of avoidable deaths).

Such serious charges have already been denied by Cabinet Ministers, although many anticipate that Cummings will have supportive evidence with him on Wednesday.  The consequences of any serious charges are unclear, even if backed by hard evidence. In policy terms, the government is likely to defer ‘lessons learned’ from the pandemic until the official coronavirus inquiry, which is set to take place next year. In political terms and in ‘the court of public opinion’, the government will be pretty confident of riding-out any embarrassment caused by Cummings’ testimony. Accusations of inept decision-making can be countered with the defence that government was following the scientific advice of the time – and thus ensure blame is collective. On a more personal level, the government could dismiss much of Cummings’ accusations as the rantings of a discredited and bitter former adviser – noting his considerable unpopularity among the general public (a poll published today suggested that only 14% of people believed him to tell the truth). Lastly, the Prime Minister and those around him will be well aware that while politically-engaged people will react with interest to Cummings’ testimony, most of the public will just be yearning to return to their normal lives and not spend time dwelling on political decisions taken in March 2020. That said, there remains a sense of apprehension from government about what exactly Cummings will do or how far he will go in trying to the Prime Minister’s reputation. He is, after all, a man with nothing to lose. If it was able to do so, Wednesday would have been a good time for the government to announce confirmation of the end of social distancing – allowing people return to such things as attending concerts or ordering drinks at the bar.