How does a new Labour Government approach the second coming of President Trump and the rise of JD Vance?

At Blenheim Palace on Thursday evening, 45 European leaders will meet to discuss one man: Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin – not the President of Ukraine as Biden mistakenly called him at last week’s NATO summit. The fourth meeting of the European Political Community since its founding back in 2022 is designed to try and shore up support for President Zelensky, expected to attend the first international summit hosted by the new UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Dinner table talk could very well switch to a new name in politics however - J D Vance, Trump’s Vice Presidential selection. Announced on Monday at the Republican National Convention by the former president wearing a suspiciously large bandage, the Ohio senator is confirmation of a longer term trend – that Trump’s ‘America first’ conservatism is likely be a force in global politics once again come November.

How the Labour party navigate the ‘special relationship’ with the US in the next few months will be a critical challenge for Sir Keir Starmer and his Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

So, who is J D Vance? Vance grew up in the Ohio rust-belt in a working class community that provided the background for his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, published in 2016. The book was much loved by Donald Trump Jr, with the two becoming close friends, and was even made into a film in 2020. Vance served in the marines before graduating from Yale Law School and working in venture capital.

But he has dedicated much of his short career in the senate to opposing US military aid for Ukraine. Earlier this year, Vance said: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other”, wanting to focus first on American competition with China – ‘where the real enemy is’. Here, he aligns with Trump’s calls for ‘broad-based tariffs’ and believes that the US should ‘be making more of our stuff’, even congratulating Biden on his bill to increase US manufacture of semiconductors. Vance has also grown more ‘Christian Conservative’ as he has got closer to Trump, more sceptical of climate change and with more strident anti-abortion views than his running mate.

So how prepared is Labour for the reality of a second term for Donald Trump and the arrival of JD Vance on the global stage?

Its thought that Sir Keir Starmer was the only world leader to call Trump following his assassination attempt. King Charles has also privately wished him a speedy recovery – a gesture that could go down well with former president who had a particular soft spot for Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth. The fact that David Lammy held a meeting with J D Vance back in May reveals that the new Labour government has a close ear to the ground within Republican party circles – might we see the resurrection of the Blairite idea of the UK as ‘the bridge’ between Europe and America in the coming years?

If Trump wins, the 39-year-old Vance will become the youngest Vice President in 70 years – a much-needed boost of vitality for American politics. David Lammy may have described Trump as a ‘neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath’ in 2018, but Vance described himself as a ‘Never Trump’ and Trump as ‘America’s Hitler’ in 2016.

Starmer’s ‘root and branch’ assessment of the British military announced today and Lammy’s agreement in May with his ‘friend’ Vance that ‘we in Europe have a problem that we need to fix with higher defence expenditure’ could be a good start to convincing America that the rest of NATO intend to ‘step up’ their own military contributions. They may still have a way to go, however.

On Thursday J D Vance warned that the UK could become the ‘first truly Islamist country that will get a nuclear weapon…since Labour just took over.’ Such rhetoric suggests that he is more in tune with the voices of Europe’s populistr right. While Labour has made a good start at loudly offering up their thoughts, prayers, and more defence spending to the Republicans, no one should be surprised if the European leaders gathered on Thursday are quietly praying for Ukraine and a miracle for Biden.