A tale of two conferences

For those attending both main parties’ conferences it was an unusual experience. Indeed, anyone who had missed the result of the election could have been forgiven for thinking that it was the Conservatives who had won with a large majority, and Labour who had suffered an historic defeat, which just goes to show how fast the political news cycle moves. 

Labour conference was much more muted than expected, as activists and MPs come to terms with the realities of government and the difficult choices they face. The decision to cut the winter fuel allowance was the talk of the conference, many feeling it was an unnecessary mistake. The ongoing saga over donations to the Prime Minister and senior cabinet ministers also made it uncomfortable for those Labour politicians on the media round, who, with less than a month until the Budget, had little of substance to say. The mood was surprisingly downbeat. 

For activists at the Conservative conference, there was only one story in town. The four leadership candidates set out their stall to party members, weighed down with quantities of merchandise from large foam hands to branded M&Ms. In terms of substance, there was relatively little ‘new’ information, mostly because all four are relatively well known. That meant that there was greater scrutiny on mistakes from the leading contenders, notably from Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch.  

Badenoch has made a virtue of being straight talking, prepared to say what others aren’t, and her comments on maternity pay in an interview with Times Radio raised eyebrows. The full quote was as follows “statutory maternity pay is a function of tax; tax comes from people who are working. We’re taking from one group of people and giving to another. This, in my view, is excessive.” Supporters of rival candidates immediately jumped on the remarks, forcing Badenoch to later issue a clarification. Her conference was also not helped by her commenting at a fringe event that “about 5-10% of them [civil servants]… are very, very bad. You know, should-be-in-prison bad”, which drew sharp criticism from unions and the government. 

Robert Jenrick has quietly become the frontrunner in the race – well supported by MPs, with a slick social media operation and a campaign team that has targeted activists well. However, he too stumbled at conference, with some inadvisable slogans on merchandise, and a claim on a campaign video that the European Court of Human rights is forcing the SAS into “killing rather than capturing” terrorists for fear of detainees being released under European human rights law. Fellow leadership candidate Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister, was quick to criticise, saying that this showed a fundamental misunderstanding of military operations and the law of unarmed conflict.  

Despite these missteps, Jenrick and Badenoch remain ahead of Tugendhat and James Cleverly, and the first two remain the most likely to go to the membership vote that decides the leadership contest.  

For all the positivity at Conservative conference, and the difficulties and sudden unpopularity that Labour face, it is important to look at the long term and not be distracted by the stories being played out in the media.  

Labour has a huge working majority of 166, having won 411 of the 650 seats in Parliament, and recent rebellions on the two-child benefit cap in the King’s Speech barely made a dent in it.  

In addition, after the spotlight of the leadership contest, the Conservatives are going to find opposition hard. It’s been 14 years since they weren’t in government, meaning that many MPs don’t have the knowledge of how to run an effective opposition.  The agenda is set by the government, and it is hard work to grab the attention of the media, particularly early in the Parliament. Money and donations will be much lower than in government, as will the resources of the party to staff CCHQ and researchers to the Shadow Cabinet.  

In truth, the mood of both conferences felt wrong, and it is a reminder to us all in today’s rolling news headlines that the long-term impact of the election result will continue to be felt for some time to come.