24 hours in the tumultuous world of Donald Trump

With a single post on a social media channel he happens to own, Donald Trump yesterday dashed any hope of global economic certainty any time soon, no matter how grim that certainty had initially appeared.

We’d watched aghast as stock markets dived, pension pots hollowed out, and a global trade war ensued over the imposition of the US president’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. We were coming to terms with the new world order.

Then at 2.37pm UK time, 9.37am Stateside, Trump wrote a post on his TRUTH Social platform which is likely to become another landmark moment in history. 

“This is a great time to buy!!! DJT,” it proclaimed.

Less than four hours later, Trump announced a 90-day pause on his tariffs for countries that had not retaliated. For China, which had fought back, there would be an even higher tariff of 125%.

US stocks soared on the news, closing up 9.5% by the end of trading. The American market, measured by the S&P 500, had clawed back about $4 trillion, or 70%, of the value it had lost over the previous four trading days.

The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both surged over 6% at market open today. The FTSE 100 surpassed 8,000 points in its largest rally in five years. Asian and Australian shares increased sharply, as did European stocks. The Chinese yuan slipped to 7.33 per dollar, its weakest since 2007.

But this is surely good news? It would be if it didn’t underline the unpredictability of the American President. What’s next? Who knows?

Numerous theories have emerged.

Trump had ‘blinked’ in the face of the global uncertainty his tariffs had caused. This was always the plan. There was no plan. Trump is more a dealmaking businessman than a politician and this a tactic from that playbook. A great many people are of course asking whether Trump’s prescient social post was deliberate market manipulation.

Amid all this uncertainty, what do we know for sure?

For one thing, the unchecked power of social media in the hands of people with influence. Around a week after his so called ‘Liberation Day’, and on one of the worst weeks in the history of world stock markets, Trump’s post to his almost 9.48 million followers fell well outside of any formal trade announcement. 

Did Trump know he was coming closer to blinking? If he did, people will rightly wonder how far beyond convention he is prepared to go.

Stability has returned to the markets, but for how long?

A positive note for the United Kingdom is 90 more days to mitigate the impact of goods becoming 10% more expensive in the biggest global economy. But three months is a long time in the world of Donald Trump. Things could change again.

Is it good or bad news for Jaguar Land Rover, for example, which paused shipments of its cars to the US to contemplate the impact of a 25% tariff on luxury cars. Will the UK government now repeal its relaxation of the 2030 electric vehicle mandate?

Is this a time for gratitude or hard negotiation? Another theory is that Trump’s u-turn was prompted by the practical implications of so many world leaders wanting to cut a better deal. In front of an audience of Republicans on Tuesday night, the President had mockingly claimed world leaders were calling for him to, “Please, please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything.”

Speaking to Politico London Playbook, SEC Newgate director and former government trade adviser Allie Renison said Trump’s tariff pause makes it less likely that the UK will be able to reduce its 10% tariff. 

“The big question that remains is whether his tariff approach is about generating revenue or for cutting deals,” she said. “Ostensibly, you can’t have both, unless the 10 % universal tariff uplift he’s left in effect is a true baseline without too much negotiating down from that. That’s a worry for the U.K.”

Speaking to the Financial Times, Allie said that given the challenge of running so many negotiations concurrently, a faster climbdown would be to shift from blanket tariffs to more targeted, sectoral duties and product exemptions.

For communicators, politicians and advocates, this latest stark lesson in ‘Trumpenomics’ is a reminder of the need to apply the ‘what if…’ test to our communications activity. 

If the world shifts on its axis, will we be able to do the same without alienating or alarming stakeholders? Never before has planning ahead – and for uncertainty – felt so necessary.