Battle of the five parties: the West of England's mayoral election

With the fallout from Thursday’s local elections set to be dominated by the performance of Reform UK, one fascinating mayoral contest has largely gone unnoticed by the national media. Following the Conservative government of 2021’s decision [when Boris Johnson was PM!] to move mayoral elections to first-past-the-post, they may have inadvertently created a true battle of the five parties in the West of England. 

As with the ‘Lonely Mountain’ in Tolkien’s The Hobbit, there are five (political) armies laying electoral claim to the West of England. Labour will have been rocked by Dan Norris’s recent arrest and the reports of dysfunction and bullying at the Combined Authority. Labour candidate, Helen Godwin, has sought to be a unifying voice for the region, promising a ‘new chapter.’ Plenty of senior Labour figures have in visited the region in recent weeks, including both the Prime Minister and Deputy PM. The Party performed well at the recent general election but will face a hard battle to perform well on May 1st as voters in central Bristol wards have abandoned Labour – with some citing the cut to the winter fuel allowance or benefit reforms in the recent Budget. However, there are signs that Labour vote is holding steady in South Gloucestershire, Bath and Northeast Somerset. 

It is, of course, the Greens who stand to benefit from this, and the fact that they took control of Bristol City Council last May. While some things the new Green council have done locally have raised eyebrows, perhaps the national picture will act as a shield from some unpopular local decisions. 

Reform’s candidate, the Brexit backing Aaron Banks, will be benefit from any disillusionment with the new Labour government. Bristol is, after all, far more than just leafy, affluent Clifton, and there are parts where he might perform well. The key for Reform will be whether this message resonates with South Gloucestershire voters; given it seems slightly unlikely that Liberal Democrat-controlled Bath will be fertile territory. 

While some are portraying this as a Labour v Green battle, it seems foolish me to discount the Liberal Democrats, or indeed the Conservatives. The Lib Dems will surely benefit from being a decent alternative to Labour and the Conservatives across the region, even if their weakness is they won’t expect to pile up votes in Bristol. Similarly, the Conservatives could sneak through the crowded field given that they will still maintain a base level of support across the West of England. 

So, inadvertently the change to the voting system makes this an incredibly close race to call, which was probably not the intention of the Johnson administration back in 2021. It also presents the farcical scenario where the winner could be crowned based on a shade above 20% of a low turnout. 

Everything I have heard and seen suggests that Labour will do better here than the national picture provides, but this is a significant test given that this was one of the few standout victories for the Party in 2021. A Green victory would be another milestone and cement them as a real electoral force in the region. As in The Hobbit, these five electoral forces  all vying for victory on the West of England’s Lonely Mountain, this is perhaps the most interesting race in the country – so keep an eye on Friday for the battle of the five parties.