COP29 at a glance: The conference runs on amid growing rancour

COP29 is officially due to end today but the chances of that happening were always slender.

COP summits tend to run on for hours, often days, beyond their official end date as diplomats tussle to get a form of words that is acceptable to national political interest and the need to drive ambition and progress towards UN net zero goals.

Yet the early reaction to the draft text in Azerbaijan has been particularly blunt and damming. ‘Totally unacceptable and inadequate’, according to the African Group of Negotiators.

‘We cannot be expected to agree to a text which shows such contempt for our vulnerable people,’ according to the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

 The issue at stake, in a COP that is focused on finance, is the amount of money that developing nations are prepared to pledge towards reparation and climate change mitigation in the developing world.

The Baku text has proposed $250 billion per year by 2035 as payment from developed nations. Developing countries argue this falls far short of the $400 billion a year which the UN Adaption Gap report says is needed.

It also rubs salt into an open wound for developing nations who are angry that earlier pledges by developed nations to pay $100 billion a year in reparations were only met in 2022 (seven years after they were meant to start being made).  

It’s a depressing end-game for a COP summit that has been clouded by a lack of engagement from some political leaders, questions about which countries will lead climate ambition (following Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the anticipated US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement) and accusations that the hosts were using the COP summit to agree side bar deals on fossil fuels.

The negotiations could roll on through the weekend and may yet deliver more ambition and progress, but don’t hold your breath. COP29 was expected to be ‘transitional’ – i.e. not deliver much beyond keeping the ball rolling from COP28 to COP30 (next year in Brazil). That looks like the best outcome at this stage and (barring any surprise outcomes) leaves a huge amount to do if COP 30 is to keep climate ambition on track.