“Don't call it a comeback.” The IPO Market is ready for a second quarter resurgence

You only get one shot at a comeback. 

To achieved it, the timing has to be right. Industry conditions must be in your favour. Most importantly, people need to miss you and are ready to believe and invest in you again.  

We’ve seen some incredibly successful ones. Gary Barlow’s songwriting prowess, which captivated young people at the start of the nineties, was also able to pull at the heartstrings of middle-aged mums as Take That successfully returned in 2006 without Robbie Williams. The band are still touring now as a trio nearly 20 years on. 

Equally, we’ve seen many failed attempts. Two of the biggest bands in the world in the seventies, Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd, both failed at comebacks in the eighties as tastes had moved on. Politically, former Prime Minster David Cameron’s brief comeback as Foreign Secretary under Rishi Sunak’s failing administration was too soon and one he now probably regrets. 

On Friday, Peel Hunt put its head above the parapet to say it was the IPO market's turn to make a comeback, with expectations of it springing back to life in Q2 2025.

They have good reason to make this statement. The bank said two positive conditions are providing newfound optimism for the UK equity market. The first is that IPO activity has restarted in Europe, with three notable offerings currently live in the market. These include the Dutch luxury travel logistics firm Ferrari Group, Spanish travel technology company HBX Group, and Czech power equipment company Doosan Skoda Power. Meanwhile, Polish medical diagnostics firm Diagnostyka priced its IPO last week. 

Although it has been a European-led IPO recovery so far, the bank said the broader picture remains constructive in the UK.  Economic conditions are stabilising and, most importantly, remaining consistently positive. The bank added that equity markets in the UK and globally have bounced back from bond yield concerns earlier in the year and are trading at near highs again. “Broader UK ECM has started the year well with c.£4bn of issuance so far.” 

The bank continued that it “continues to see positive engagement from UK long-only funds in particular on pre-IPO meeting processes, with high-quality meeting schedules and engagement. Where there are compelling opportunities, investors are putting their hands up to participate. With a number of UK IPOs now targeting 2Q, the upcoming deep dive and pilot fishing exercises will be an important test of whether there is firm demand from investors for these transactions.”

As Peel Hunt noted in their report and Gary Barlow sensed in 2006, demand is clearly there for the right situations for a comeback. The upcoming deep dive analysis and investment case presentations will now be an important test of whether the companies wanting to list are well received and demand from investors for these transactions is back for good.