“Fore!” How did the EU Trade Commissioner end up in the bunker?

Ciaran Gill and Sabine Tyldesley analyse the recent scandal impacting senior Irish figures, and what a possible dismissal of EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan would mean for the Brexit trade talks.

EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan looked close to losing his position yesterday, as a result of rising pressure over the weekend following his attendance of a large scale function held at a Golf Club alongside other high profile Irish politicians. Hogan has attracted a lot of attention over the past few days given that it was also revealed that the police stopped his car last week for using his phone whilst driving in County Kildare, an area that has been under a local lockdown. Today it was revealed that the Commissioner had actually visited the county twice in his recent trip back to Ireland: once before the function, when he was stopped by the police, and once afterwards. A spokesperson for Hogan said that he had visited the area for a second time to collect his belongings before returning to Brussels.

The Commissioner has been encouraged to “consider his position” by Ireland’s Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, and its Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has sought further details from Hogan on what has happened over the past weeks. Hogan has since provided 20 pages of documents with information on his trip to Ireland and the Clifden golf dinner which caused the controversy. Public polling in Ireland supports Hogan’s resignation but, as per EU rules, the Irish Government is unable to remove him from his position – this falls under the remit of the European Commission.

What would a resignation of the EU’s Trade Commissioner mean for the UK’s negotiations with the EU on the future trading relationship, and how did it come to this ?

High horses make for a steep fall

In July, The Guardian published an editorial which lavished praise on the state of politics in Ireland. The broadsheet noted that the coalition that Fianna Fáil forged with the Green Party and its erstwhile rival Fine Gael to form a new government would have been “unthinkable” a generation ago. It provided the strongest acclamation, however, for the Irish Government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. “Britain’s Covid-19 response”, it wrote, “has been shambolic…it has been infected from the start by Brexit exceptionalism. Like Scotland and Wales, Ireland has steered a different and wiser course.”

This was published at a time when the Irish Government was enjoying high levels of public confidence. By contrast, looking at the UK’s handling of the crisis, some have argued that Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle irrevocably frayed the fabric of trust that the UK Government should have enjoyed, reducing adherence to the rules as a result. 

While the Prime Minister’s special adviser was donning his white shirt for a press conference, across the Irish Sea things looked very different. At the start of the pandemic, the Irish Government was led by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar, a qualified medical doctor, and measures were by and large adhered to. Ireland’s coronavirus death rate has indeed been half of that of its larger neighbour and trust has been high, but recent events have impacted this.

Events, dear boy, events

Last Thursday, the Irish Examiner published a story which calls into question whether Ireland truly has “steered a different and wiser course” during the coronavirus pandemic. It revealed that the Oireachtas’ (Ireland’s legislature) Golf Society held an event on the 19^th August in County Galway which was attended by 81 prominent figures of Irish public and political life. On the face of it, this event flouted new rules that the Cabinet has just agreed to quell the transmission of coronavirus in public spaces. A considerable anger has risen in Ireland as a result, undermining public trust in the Government.

Following the publication of the ‘GolfGate’ story on Thursday, the Minister for Agriculture Dara Calleary announced his resignation given that he was one of the event’s 81 attendees. As well as TDs (Teachtaí Dála – members of the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas), other attendees included senators and a judge. The question of why Trade Commissioner Hogan remains in post is therefore an understandable one.

Carnoustie effect*?

But what about the trade negotiations with the EU? Could ‘GolfGate’ mean a new EU Trade Commissioner who could steer the negotiations into greater consensus? But if he stays, what will this mean for the talks?

Hogan has been a European commissioner since 2014, first holding the agriculture brief before taking on trade in late 2019. Currently, it looks likely that he might get away with a slap on the wrist. The reason for this is that Hogan is not accountable to the Irish Government but to the European Commission and to President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

The Irish Government via the Taoiseach could ask von der Leyen to remove him but traditionally, thresholds for removing Commissioners are very high, given the EU is not keen to be dragged into a reshuffle every time a domestic issue arises. A removal request is therefore unlikely to be granted unless further details are revealed or inconsistencies in Hogan’s report are found.

However, his credibility and decision making will be put into question for any decisions he makes in future, which could damage the newly formed Irish Government. Further, the extent to which Hogan’s behaviour has caused anger across the country is significant.

It is for this reason that the spokesperson for the Commission struck a sensitive note in her statement:

“We feel for the people of Ireland who, like many other people and communities in the European Union over the past months, had to go through difficult times to comply with strict regulations in order to prevent the spread of coronavirus,”

“Many have lost loved ones, many others have been ill and others have suffered from the restrictions. So this is why it is important that rules are respected. This is a matter not just of respecting the rules, but this is also a matter of public health. There are legal aspects involved and there are moral aspects involved as well.”

Bogey or birdie for Brexit talks?

The question is therefore how tenable Hogan’s position is, and the impact this reputational hit will have on trade negotiations. The extent to which Hogan plays a role in the Future Relationship negotiations is being questioned while others fear Irish interests would not be properly represented if he left. Sinn Féin’s leader Mary Lou McDonald  said: “I am not entirely convinced of that argument. I think certainly in the last rounds of Brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier has acquitted himself very well. In fact truth be told it was Michel Barnier and his team that did the heavy lifting.”

In this context, it is worth noting that if Hogan were to leave his post, any Irish replacement would likely not inherit his trade portfolio, instead triggering a reshuffle. The rules state that “in the event of a substantial portfolio change during the Commission's term of office, the filling of a vacancy or the appointment of a new Commissioner following the accession of a new member state, the Commissioners concerned is heard again before the relevant committees”.

Further, Article 17(6) of the EU treaty the Commission president can only ask a Commissioner to step down if they are guilty of serious misconduct, or if they are “no longer fulfilling the conditions required for the performance of their duties”.  Given the challenges the Commission faces and the tight timelines on Brexit negotiations, getting Hogan to resign looks like more trouble than it’s worth.

For a Government still in its infancy and having had a rocky start to its life, the golf society dinner controversy threatens to stymie progress and derail public trust in its nascent agenda.

On Friday, Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald said that she had asked the Taoiseach to recall the Dáil (Irish parliament) in the wake of the scandal but that he had refused to do so. Since then, it has been confirmed that the request for a return early next month instead of 15 September had gone to the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) on Monday.

As summer comes to an end and the country gears up for a potential second wave of coronavirus later in the year, there is a risk that Ireland’s very own Barnard Castle moment will impair the Government’s efforts to weather future storms. Trust, after all, is a precious thing that is easily lost but difficult to repair.

However for the functioning of the EU, and perhaps by extension, the negotiations on UK trade, consistency might not be a bad thing and it’s von der Leyen that has the last say.

*In Golf: The course at Carnoustie was so difficult that most of the world's best golfers scored atrociously. Nobody looked bad, because everybody looked bad.  This is known as the Carnoustie effect.