Insights from COP 26: Day 12 – The final day of COP26?

By Dafydd Rees and Andrew Adie

Friday 12^th November may or may not be the final day of COP26. Officially the Conference ends at 6pm this evening, in reality fundamental differences remain on the nature of the final agreement to be reached. Alok Sharma who is COP26 President has said that in his view it is still possible to achieve the target set of keeping global warming to 1.5C. Talks may well continue until the weekend and beyond the official deadline tonight.   

A commitment to accelerate the phasing out of coal and fossil fuel subsidies has been weakened but currently remains in the text of the final COP26 deal. Such a call has never before appeared in the final text of a UN climate conference. The language now being used refers to “unabated” coal power and “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. Governments around the world currently spend hundreds of billions of pounds a year subsidising the production and consumption of fossil fuels. India has said it opposes the move while Saudi Arabia has denied it is seeking to prevent a final agreement. 

China is expected to oppose the proposal from the UK and US that individual countries should be “requested” to improve on their official climate plans for cutting greenhouse gases known as nationally determined contributions by the end of next year.  

Another unresolved issue is the delivery of the promise made in 2009 of $100bn per year in climate finance for poor countries by 2020. Developing countries want a stronger commitment to increased funding from the developed world. The current pledge is that this target will be met by 2023.  

Disagreements remain over a framework for international carbon offset markets. Negotiators have yet to agree international rules for trading carbon offsets or credits. The latest development appears to be a plan to create two different types of emissions credits and a new approach to prevent double-counting. Major countries such as the US oppose a mandatory levy on carbon credits that would contribute to an adaptation fund for poorer countries. Discussions are said to be in the balance.    

How these negotiations conclude is critical. NGOs have pointed out that the difference between 1.5C and 2C is the difference between having some coral reefs and having none. For come countries and economies the impact would be equally devastating.

Much has been achieved at COP26, business and finance have stepped into the fray, the US has been back and engaged, key agreements have been reached to preserve forests, oceans and tighten reporting frameworks for business around carbon reduction. Agreements to limit coal use and reduce fossil fuel exploration have been hatched albeit with limited support. 

Yet, the absence of China and Russia from Glasgow inevitably means that much will pass to COP27 next year in Egypt. Ensuring a framework is in place that keeps 1.5C in reach, drives a just transition and drives down carbon emissions remains vital if the Conference is to come close to achieving a meaningful impact. The coming hours remain critical.