Letter from... Rome

By Maurizio Maione, Vice President, SEC Newgate

Nothing fits better than Harry Potter’s misleading platform 9¾ to describe how most Italians reacted to Sunday’s communications about lockdown stage 2, effective from May 4^th.

It looks, in fact, as if we are heading toward Stage 1¾. Apart from a boost in terms of increased economic activity - with trades allowed to re-open, including bars and restaurants though only with take-aways, the everyday life of the Italian people will largely remain the same as now.

The physical and psychological signs of social containment remain a constant impact on citizen morale. The need for a self-declaration form to be carried during any travel remains, as well as all the major measures to prevent social contact (use of masks, restricted access to retail, public transport etc.). Even personal meetings – the real novelty of this set of new rules – are limited to the family unit, halting any dream of gathering amongst friends. The inviolable borders remain between regions, except in cases of significant urgency.

Let’s put it in this way: for those Italians who had the idea that this emergency was a bit of a storm in a teacup, now the message has arrived clearly and utterly.  More utterly then clearly, to be honest.

Ahead of the Government’s announcement, our hopes were raised.  In fact, this has been first time in this crisis that the Government has missed the communication leverage almost completely.   

Hopes were raised by rumors that circulated widely ahead of the announcement, giving the impression that significant changes to the planned agenda of stage 2 were made last minute.  Consequently, the Prime Minister was accountable for explaining something far less attractive than expected.

Now and for the next few weeks it will be a watch and wait game.   Will the virus keep its slow downturn trend or will infections accelerate again?  According to what will turn out to be the result of this baleful lottery we will progress onto the next stage or freeze down to new severe restrictions.

While we’re all waiting for the definitive spell to sort this thing out, “vaccinum valioso” as they would have said at Hogwarts but until then, we will all be on our best behaviour to get us closer to more normal life.