Northern Ireland: Union, Unity, Neither?

By Ciaran Gill

Of all the constituent parts of the UK, Northern Ireland is the place in which the twin-headed hydra of Brexit and COVID-19 has had the largest cumulative impact over the past year. In some ways, these two issues have reanimated the ghosts of the past, creating considerable political difficulties as a result.  

Northern Ireland’s Executive got up and running in January 2020 after nearly three years of dormancy. Headed by First Minister Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Féin, the foundations of an already uneasy alliance have been weakened throughout the stresses of lockdown and economic upheaval.

On 30 June 2020 a funeral was held in Belfast for former IRA member Bobby Storey. Over 1,000 people lined the streets for the funeral procession, which was attended by senior Sinn Féin figures such as the Deputy First Minister. With strict limits on public gatherings in place via Northern Ireland’s COVID-19 regulations, Sinn Féin’s presence at the funeral created significant tension between O’Neill and the First Minister, both of whom were the public faces of Northern Ireland’s fight against the pandemic.

Relations, however, were somewhat patched up in September 2020 when the Deputy First Minister said: “I do accept the public messaging about the pandemic has been undermined over the controversy over the past couple of months. It was never my intention and I regret that. I want to rebuild trust with the public”.

Just months later, the UK Government and the European Union finalised the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which came into force on New Year’s Eve. A legislative instrument that de facto places Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market for Goods, necessitating checks on Great Britain-Northern Ireland trade as a result, robust opposition to the new arrangements came from the leaders of Northern Irish unionism.

A steady drip of articles on the administrative hurdles to be overcome by companies exporting to Northern Ireland raised tension in the early part of the year. Indeed, in early February, checks on animal and food products coming in from Great Britain were temporarily suspended after there were reports of “menacing behaviour” which could impact the safety of staff working at ports. These threats were ostensibly from figures opposed to the creation of an “Irish Sea Border”, as per graffiti found in the town of Larne which hosts one of the ports.

The DUP has been vociferous in its opposition to the Protocol, as shown by Sammy Wilson MP’s comments on 1 March when he said that “we will seek to use every opportunity to attack the Protocol, its implications, to make sure it is destroyed”. “In the longer run”, he said, “it's going to destroy democracy because the Protocol enforces laws on NI that are not enforced on the rest of the United Kingdom”.

The Protocol largely divides Northern Irish political opinion along unionist and nationalist lines. One month after the Protocol’s implementation, an opinion poll was published in the Belfast Telegraph which showed the DUP on a twenty year-low of 19% and the more hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) on a record high of 10%.

Possibly with an eye on the TUV’s growth in support, the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) – which campaigned for Remain in the 2016 referendum – has joined forces with the other unionist parties in opposing the Protocol. In February, it was announced that all three parties would be part of a legal bid to have the Protocol disapplied.

It could be argued that the Alliance Party – a political party which states its neutrality when it comes to the thorny issue of Northern Ireland’s constitutional future – has scooped up some of the UUP voters who have felt left behind by the party’s embrace of anti-Protocol rhetoric. In the Belfast Telegraph opinion poll, published on 1 February, Alliance Party support was recorded at 18% - just one percentage point behind the DUP.

The same poll records Sinn Féin as Northern Ireland’s most popular party but what does this mean for the future of Northern Ireland? The Brexit wars since 2016 have precipitated a relatively large amount of debate around a potential United Ireland and since the implementation of the Protocol it has increased even more. Indeed, with the Alliance Party’s rise in support, some have said that Northern Ireland’s future could be determined by those who classify themselves as neither nationalist nor unionist, many of whom are Alliance voters.

Irish Government initiatives such as the Shared Island Unit envisage the further development of an all-island economy. However, even though the latest polling data from Ireland shows Sinn Féin on 29%, tied with Fine Gael, it is far from certain whether the Irish Government and its citizens would like to bring about any United Ireland, federal Ireland or ‘new’ Ireland within the next ten years.

The stark difference in lived experience over the past 60 years between those in Northern Ireland and those in Ireland means that social and cultural issues, as well as political and economic issues, need to be addressed before any unification of the island can take place. Multiple contested histories permeate political life on the island of Ireland, and even amongst Northern Ireland nationalists and citizens of the Irish republic, divisions remain regarding interpretations of the past.

The fragile foundations of the Northern Ireland Executive, meanwhile, were illustrated once more this week when the First Minister Arlene Foster called for Simon Byrne, the Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, to resign. This was made in response to the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) announcement that nobody (including senior Sinn Féin members) would be prosecuted for their participation in the funeral of Bobby Storey.

On Wednesday 31 March the PPS announced that the decision would be reviewed. On the same day the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) tabled a motion to recall the Northern Ireland Assembly from its Easter recess to discuss, on 1 April, the actions of Sinn Féin ministers in attending the funeral.

The fragility of the Executive – exacerbated by the funeral incident and tensions arising from Brexit – combined with the regular public discussion of Northern Ireland’s constitutional future mean that Northern Ireland is in a period of unstable transition. We may know more about its future after next year’s Stormont elections and as the impacts of more all-island outreach start to be felt but for now, one year out from its centenary, Northern Ireland is in a state of flux.