Is the ‘perfect post-truth storm’ upon us?

“The truth is, it’s getting harder to describe the extent to which a meaningful percentage of Americans have dissociated from reality” lamented Charlie Warzel a couple of weeks ago in the Atlantic. He went on to describe the wholesale rejection of reality and especially the people or institutions whose job it is to describe reality in the US. The most recent and starkest example of this was a storm of conspiracy theories on social media that accompanied the arrival of Hurricane Milton. Millions of people in the affected areas were viewing and propagating theories about things like “weather weapons” unleashed by the US government and James Bond villain level FEMA wrongdoing, instead of talking about how to deal with yet another devastating hurricane. 

At its core, the choice seems to be a bleak one. Either we have to believe that the arrival of ever larger and more destructive weather events has something to do with changes to the global climate (a highly complex and terrifying existential threat out of our immediate control) or we can take our frustrations out on the people that told us about it (FEMA) with wild conspiracy theories. 

Garry Kasparov said it best: “The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” It is likely that the sheer abundance and proliferation of disinformation online has made the average person question reality and doubt what they see with their own eyes much more than they ever did in past. 

In an increasingly complex and chaotic world, there is probably some solipsistic comfort to be found in the idea that you can just invent ‘the truth’ - cognitive dissonance and contradiction is part of the human condition after all. Accepting that we don’t know (and might never know) the answer to lots of important questions is scary and difficult, especially when the alternative is to believe a neat little theory that explains it all. To borrow Mokokoma Mokhonoana’s quip: “It is unfortunate that it is possible to 'know' something that is not true.”

How to weather the ‘perfect post-truth storm’

Conspiracies are not unique to our American cousins, on this side of the pond conspiracy theories have also rapidly grown in popularity. In 2023, Kings College London ran a huge survey that found that almost a quarter of the UK population believe that Covid-19 was ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ a hoax. In the days before the rise of social media and AI, individuals or groups who believed in more fanciful theories were typically marginalised and had no way of spreading their ideas effectively. With the arrival of social media, they can do it in the blink of an eye to an ever-growing global audience. Add in the dual accelerants of algorithms that feed people this type of content on a loop and more recent AI trickery, even to the expert eye, fact often becomes extremely hard to distinguish from fiction. 

Perhaps the best example of how to deal with widespread conspiracy theories and misinformation from an organisational perspective comes from the pharma companies providing Covid vaccines during the pandemic. Those that did well were the ones which built institutional credibility ahead of the crisis and demonstrated open and transparent leadership during it. This, in part, comes down to preparation. Whilst you cannot prepare for every eventuality, especially in the mad world of conspiracies, you can have a robust framework in place for how to deal with a crisis situation when does occur. 

When a crisis of disinformation does hit, getting a jump on the situation with consistent, clear and practical information is absolutely key. Furthermore, being honest and transparent about the challenges you face, and showing empathy to those affected, builds trust. Any sense that an organisation is hiding critical bits of information will only ever breed distrust and conspiracy. 

The result of this post-truth storm is that the range, complexity, size and volume of crises experienced by organisations is likely to rise, particularly as technology advances and the world becomes both more interconnected and politically fractured.

Having a good crisis response has never been so important.