Reform UK rattles Welsh Labour as electoral shifts loom

The latest Barn Cymru poll released over the weekend presents concerning news for Welsh Labour, which has governed Wales - either alone or in coalition - since the Senedd's creation in 1999. 

The poll shows Plaid Cymru at 24%, Welsh Labour and Reform UK both at 23%, with the Welsh Conservatives at 19%. Of particular concern to Labour, especially with the 2026 Senedd election set to use a fully proportional system, is the rise of Reform UK, which is gaining support nationwide, particularly in traditional Labour heartlands. Reform’s strong performance in Wales during the 2024 General Election – finishing second in 13 seats but winning no MPs due to the First Past the Post system – highlights how the proportional system would work to their advantage in Wales

The polling figures, coupled with the new system, would amazingly see Labour losing MSs at an election when the overall number of MSs is set to increase from 60 to 96. 

If this did become a reality, it would feel like a self-inflicted wound, as Welsh Labour has been the driving force behind the new system, which would have likely resulted in the party losing its working majority even with more favourable polling. 

Additionally, recent policies have faced public backlash, most notably the introduction of the 20mph speed limit. Policies introduced by their Westminster counterparts have also not gone down well. Even if you agree with cutting winter fuel allowances and making farmers liable to inheritance tax, the communications around the implementation of these policies could certainly have been handled better.

Additionally, the very public leadership disputes that have played out since Mark Drakeford stood down has had a detrimental impact on the party’s reputation. Critics of the Conservative Party’s leadership troubles in 2022, which led to Rishi Sunak’s ‘coronation’ without a membership vote, may well see parallels in the appointment of Eluned Morgan as First Minister.

Despite this, Labour can take comfort in its historic dominance of Welsh politics since 1922. Even this year, it secured 27 of Wales’ 32 parliamentary seats. And when you look back at 2010 – the last time Plaid Cymru were ahead of Welsh Labour in the polls – the election the following year resulted in a Labour working majority, no longer in need of Plaid support.

Labour has historically bounced back when needed, but the growing concern now is that they may not have enough time to reverse polling trends. The Welsh Government currently needs one vote from an opposition Senedd member to pass its upcoming budget. This comes after Chancellor Rachel Reeves allocated £1.7bn for Wales in her recent budget. For Wales to access next year’s funding, a new budget must be approved. Failure to do so would trigger legal constraints, resulting in cuts to essential public services like the NHS, schools, and councils.

If the Welsh Government fails to pass its budget, a Senedd election could become unavoidable. Opposition parties, encouraged by Saturday's poll, would want an election as soon as possible and if withholding support for the government’s spending plans accelerates that timeline, then an early election looks increasingly likely.

The balance of power may rest with the sole Liberal Democrat MS, Jane Dodds, who will inevitably be having some interesting discussions with party leaders over the coming weeks.

One saving grace for Welsh Labour has the lack of scrutiny from its official opposition, the Welsh Conservatives, who have been embroiled in turmoil of their own - which today culminated in the resignation of leader, Andrew RT Davies.

A key priority for the new leadership of both parties will be to develop a strategy to counter the undeniable threat from Reform UK, which seems to be drawing support from both sides of the political spectrum. Any success for Reform in Wales could serve as a springboard for Nigel Farage to expand the party’s influence in Westminster, posing a significant challenge for both parties on the national stage.

Historically, polling figures such as Saturday’s would have presented a challenge for Welsh Labour, but one they would have been relatively confident in turning around in 18 months, especially with a Labour Government in Westminster. However, the new electoral system will give ‘smaller’ parties an unprecedented opportunity to threaten the party’s dominance. And if an early election is called, this will put Welsh Labour’s resilience to the ultimate test.