Tariffs, trade, and turbulence: Navigating the shifting US trade landscape

SEC Newgate hosted the Tariffs & Trade Policy webinar yesterday, in partnership with Dean Street Advisers, bringing together leading experts to examine the evolving US trade approach under the America First policy. The discussion explored the resurgence of tariffs, their broader implications, and how global markets—including the UK, Canada, and the EU—are responding. Chaired by SEC Newgate’s policy expert Allie Renison*, the event featured a distinguished panel of trade and policy specialists.

Speakers included Dan Mullaney, former Assistant US Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East; Ignacio Garcia Bercero, former Trade Director at the European Commission; The Hon. David M. Wells, Senator in the Canadian Parliament; Chris Southworth, Director General of the International Chambers of Commerce UK; Anna Jerzewska, customs policy expert and founder of Trade and Borders; and Dmitry Grozoubinski, Executive Director of the Geneva Trade Platform.

Tariffs have traditionally been used to counter unfair trade practices, protect domestic industries, and address trade deficits. However, the new US administration has expanded their use, viewing them not only as an enforcement tool but also as a revenue source. This shift marks a departure from previous US trade policies and has raised concerns over the lack of procedural safeguards and the speed at which tariffs are imposed. Unlike past measures primarily targeting China, recent tariffs now impact a wider range of trading partners, including Mexico and Canada, creating uncertainty for businesses and governments alike.

Despite a strong focus on tariffs, the US has signalled some openness to negotiation, particularly in exploring sectoral agreements and investment rules with allies like the UK. However, this shift in trade strategy appears to be part of a broader geopolitical realignment, potentially undermining institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and reshaping long-standing trade alliances.

The webinar also highlighted the impact of tariffs on supply chains and e-commerce. The sudden revocation of the de minimis rule exemption for Chinese imports illustrated how abrupt policy changes can disrupt businesses. A lack of clear communication and stakeholder engagement has only added to the confusion, complicating international trade further. Affected countries must carefully weigh their responses, as excessive retaliation could heighten global trade tensions.

To mitigate risks, many economies are diversifying trade relationships. Canada is deepening ties with the EU and Asia-Pacific economies, while the UK must navigate a delicate balance between US and EU relations. With US trade policy becoming increasingly transactional and unpredictable, businesses and governments must remain agile and pragmatic in navigating the complexities of global trade.

In case you missed it, here is the webinar recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5jhc3At-As 

*Allie is a former adviser to the UK Business and Trade Secretary