Will COP29 bring the change we need?

COP16 in Cali was intended to be a landmark for global biodiversity funding. Yet, sixteen hours into overtime, with no major breakthroughs and key delegates hurrying to the airport, the negotiations ended on a disappointing note.

$200 billion needed, $396 million pledged

The Cali talks were a litmus test for whether and how countries had met their commitments to fund the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)’s ambitious goals: to mobilise at least $200 billion per year for biodiversity conservation by 2023 from all sources – domestic, international, public and private. Wealthy nations, in particular, were expected to contribute $30 billion of that total. Yet, the response at COP16 was muted. Nations pledged only $163 million in new contributions, bringing the total to $396 million – an underwhelming amount against the $30 billion target for wealthy nations alone.

What does this gap mean? For the world’s 370 million Indigenous people – who occupy 20% of Earth’s land and protect 80% of its biodiversity – and for local communities on the frontlines of conservation in low- and middle-income countries, the consequences are stark. These communities, often contributing the least to the climate and biodiversity crisis yet suffering the most, are paying the price of our collective failure to fund a sustainable future.

Private finance is a necessary solution, not an add-on

COP16 wasn’t entirely without progress. One positive was the focus on private sector engagement. Industries like pharmaceuticals and biotech, which benefit directly from biodiversity, are now expected to contribute 0.1% of their revenue or 1% of profits to a dedicated conservation fund, with half of these funds directed to Indigenous and local communities. Private finance isn’t just a helpful addition to biodiversity funding; it’s essential. As public funding commitments lag, private capital provides something governments often struggle with: adaptability and innovation.

This shift to private funding is critical, especially when applied to areas like Nature-based Solutions (NbS) – a topic expected to be prominent at COP29. If mobilised effectively, private sector funds could fast-track these efforts, allowing initiatives like NbS to scale rapidly and Indigenous communities to access the resources they need.

Solving two crises at once

One of the reasons biodiversity funding lags is the tendency to treat climate change and biodiversity loss as separate crises. COP16, for instance, saw only six heads of state in attendance, compared with the 154 leaders present at COP28 in Dubai last year. The media also reflects this imbalance, with a study showing that climate change received eight times more coverage than biodiversity between 1991 and 2018 in US, UK, and Canadian newspapers.

The truth is, these crises are deeply connected. Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, and biodiverse ecosystems are some of the best natural carbon stores. As COP29 opens next week in Baku, Azerbaijan, we need to prioritise a unified approach that recognises these interconnected challenges.

One promising aspect of COP29 is the unveiling of a new global climate finance agreement, the first in 15 years. This deal will set out the amount of finance that will be provided to help scale up action and support at-risk communities on the frontlines of climate change. COP16’s disappointing outcome serves as a reminder that ambition without financial backing is simply empty talk. If COP29 is to be more than a platform for motivational speeches, it must produce enforceable financial commitments with clear timelines and accountability measures.

Adding to the urgency, COP29 begins with a new US president and administration taking shape. The Trump campaign indicated that the incoming administration would again withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, as he had in his first term in office, and may take a far less active role in global climate leadership than many had hoped. This shift will likely create a reset in climate politics, with other nations either stepping up to fill the leadership gap or potentially scaling back their ambitions.

COP29 is our one chance to tackle these issues together – a conference like no other in the political arena. With cautious optimism, this might be the turning point we so urgently need.