All the PM wants for Christmas is [Cabinet] you-nity

By James Surallie

Following an emergency Cabinet meeting yesterday, the Prime Minister signalled that new COVID restrictions are unlikely to be implemented before Christmas. While it seems Boris Johnson will not be accused of reprising the role of ‘The Grinch’ for a second year in a row, he did warn that he would “not hesitate” to take further action to protect public health if the data regarding the Omicron variant continues to worsen. For members of the public, the Prime Minister’s words would have arguably left many feeling confused about whether to go ahead with their festive plans, with there being demands from his own backbenchers - and businesses - for greater certainty. It seems the Prime Minister would have liked to have gifted the public greater clarity, but was unable to deliver it given gathering clouds over his leadership and his ability to take his party with him.

The decision not to implement more restrictions before Christmas followed an intense three hour-long Cabinet meeting. It was reported that most of the Cabinet rejected the suggestion by Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance that stricter measures need to be implemented as soon as possible, with SAGE warning that daily hospital admissions could otherwise reach 3,000 – potentially overwhelming the NHS. Reports indicate that over a dozen ministers were against new measures, with only four – Health Secretary Sajid Javid, Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke – speaking in favour. The main objection from ministers was that there was a lack of sufficient data showing a correlation between a rising number of Omicron cases, hospitalisations, and deaths.

For the Prime Minister, warning bells must now be ringing loudly over his own political future. Just after marking the largest rebellion to his premiership last week, when a total of 99 Conservative MPs voted against the government’s new measures of COVID passes, it is understood the most senior minister to express concerns during Cabinet was the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, citing the economic damage further restrictions could cause. Since yesterday’s meeting the Chancellor has announced a £1bn new package of support for businesses in the hospitality and leisure sectors that have been so badly hit by the wave of pre-Christmas cancellations. Sunak was reportedly supported in Cabinet by Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

Not only does this all indicate that the Prime Minister may no longer have control of the country’s COVID policy going forward, with other Cabinet members more emboldened to push back at new restrictions than at any stage of the pandemic, it also implies that those with leadership ambitions of their own can sense Johnson’s wider vulnerability and are starting to make their move.

All the Prime Minister would want for Christmas this year, then, is a united Cabinet, no more leaked images from lockdown parties in No.10, and fewer questions over whether a vote of confidence looms in 2022. Unfortunately, Santa looks unlikely to grant these wishes, as the Prime Minister faces an increasingly difficult battle to retain the authority over his party that until recently looked unassailable. The new year brings new opportunities, however, and time will time if the Prime Minister is able to regain the trust and confidence that his 2019 general election landslide earned him.

As at so many other times in his premiership, how he responds to the latest twist of the seemingly never-ending COVID tale – and whether he is vindicated – will be the all-important factor.