Tariffs, Trade, and Tensions: The shifting global order under Trump’s second term

As the weeks roll on through Donald Trump’s second presidency, the ‘free world’ continues to grapple with a president with an inherent contradiction of being both the leader of the free world but freed from the responsibilities of economic leadership, defence and international aid that are innate to the title.

Trump has a penchant for testing the boundaries of the liberal international order. During his first presidency, tariffs on steel and aluminium became a cornerstone. However, this new iteration of tariffs is more inflexible, featuring no exceptions for countries like Australia and Argentina and an increase in aluminium tariffs from 10% in 2018 to 25% in 2025. 

For British goods, the latest tariffs on steel and aluminium will impact almost $3 billion more British exports than in Trump’s first term. On a broader European level, the EU is ready to bolster its Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the Steel Sector with the release of its Steel and Basic Metals Action Plan next week. Much like many of Trump’s broader policy changes, the introduction of 25% global trade tariffs on steel and aluminium will redefine the tone of transatlantic relations. 

The frequently erratic and short-term sense of direction from the USA is a distinct deviation from the well-oiled dictatorial machine that is the Chinese Government. In his speech to China’s National People’s Congress that came to a close this week, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used the opportunity to build his discussion around three key ideas: China is a reliable source of global stability, China is a gateway to amplifying the perspectives of Global South countries, and China has a growing emphasis on partnerships with its neighbours.

The annual National People’s Congress acts as a window into the internal organs of China, offering a sense of how the rest of the world beyond Western allies is beginning to navigate and establish itself in a world that is no longer under the rule of American hegemony. 

Trump’s whimsical yet seismic shifts have embedded vulnerability into the international order, that Western democracies must now adapt to on a tweet-by-tweet basis. Aside from the well-documented issues that come from a centralised Government, the Chinese Government's existence as an entity consisting of long-term strategic plans certainly re-exposes the decaying nature of the USA as a superpower.