Bordeaux burns, Hull blooms: The uneasy trade-offs of a warming Europe

The news that Europe is warming twice as fast as any other continent (European State of the Climate report, 15 April) has been greeted by some UK media with excited speculation that Hull could become the new home of the cabernet sauvignon grape, as an increase of +3C makes the Bordeaux region too arid for wine production by 2100.

A few highly speculative wins for the British (and future Scandinavian) wine industry can hardly “sugar the pill” delivered by this devastating report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), or compensate for the dangers that lie ahead for business and society if we miss our science-based targets and fail to stay within acceptable levels of global warming.

The Guardian focused on the “home-wrecking storms and floods” that displaced and affected over 400,000 people in Europe last year (the hottest on record for the Continent). The shocking scenes in eastern Spain of cars piled up in streets as flood waters subsided could become a regular occurrence - with “high” floods predicted for 30% of European rivers. We will also see more transport ships on Europe’s arterial rivers beached, as we did in Germany in 2022, when The Rhine dropped to unprecedented lows. 

Climate change will undoubtedly “redraw the map” for many more industries (and affected communities), in the coming decades. Businesses that do not “adapt to survive” – by incorporating climate-related risk (and opportunity) into their strategies, and developing robust responses to those, both mitigation and adaptation – will suffer losses, or quite possibly cease to exist.

“Every additional fraction of a degree of temperature rise matters because it accentuates the risks to our lives, to economies and to the planet. Adaptation is a must,” commented WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo on the publication, pledging to strengthen early warning systems.

Agriculture, aquaculture and food production will be most immediately affected as they are impacted not only by extreme and unpredictable weather events but by biodiversity loss as temperatures rise. Healthcare is another area that will be heavily impacted [SM1] with a predicted increase in disease and conditions associated extreme weather. Housing and infrastructure plans will be increasingly influenced by climate-related risk. And of course the travel industry will have to redraw its traditional borders, as holidaymakers reroute to cooler climes, and avoid disaster zones, and winter sports become unviable. Who would be crazy enough to consider camping in Portugal this summer, following last year’s devastating wildfires?

In fact, it’s hard to imagine a sector that won’t be affected. According to a report by EY last year, 66% of UK businesses have developed transition plans to manage climate risks. For comparison, the latest European Investment Bank survey shows that 61% of EU firms have invested in tackling climate change (compared to 56% in 2023 and 53% in 2022). The good news is that Europe is also cutting its GHG emissions faster than other big economies.

Last week, the UK government published its Climate Adaptation Research and Innovation Framework (building on its National Adaptation Plan, 2023). It contains a sobering graph* that shows the projected percentage impact on GDP in England from 2010 to 2070 under three different future climate scenarios. All scenarios show a pronounced decline in GDP over time – suggesting that the UK, like the developing world, needs urgent investment to adapt. 

At London Climate Action Week (June 21 - 29) this year, there will be a hot focus on many of these issues including food security, climate risk (not only from an insurance perspective), as well as high-level discussions around how to rapidly increase climate governance - using regulation, litigation and policy to curtail loss and damage.

A little fine wine swigging is to be expected too, as climate leaders gather to socialise and take a break from worrying about the state of the planet. 

• Data from Paul Watkiss (2022) The Costs of Adaptation, and the Economic Costs and Benefits of Adaptation in the UK

 [SM1]Boosted suggests a positive I think, so have just removed this.