Awful April’s tariff-ic turmoil

In his 1922 poem ‘The Wasteland,’  T.S. Eliot wrote that: “April is the cruellest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain.” 

Without wishing to turn this article into a literary column, my understanding of what Eliot was driving at here is that the arrival of spring, its promise and growth are of little solace to one who is suffering. Which brings us to the thrust of this article. 

As I write this, the cocktail of Donald Trump continuing to treat the world like his own personal snow globe, and the litany of rising bills is another blow for millions seeking an upturn in household economic fortunes. Increases in water and energy bills, council tax, road tax, TV licence and many other bills have seen some in the media dub this ‘Awful April.’ 

This poses a huge headache for the government. It put growth at the heart of its election pitch last summer, and while it has been soberingly honest with the electorate about the state of the nation’s economy, it’s going to need people to start feeling that in their wallets sooner rather than later. As much of a long game as it may be playing – with the next election likely in 2028 or 2029 – it won’t want to limp into that looking like Monty Python’s Black Knight. 

Costs of living crises are also unifiers for opposition parties, and there are simple ways to attack an incumbent government. Another rise in energy bills may also cause voters to begin to question the link between greater renewable energy generation and lower costs to consumers. ‘Is Net Zero worth it?’ might be a rallying cry from certain political parties. We should therefore expect Reform UK to play this card throughout the local elections campaign with the glee of someone playing an Uno ‘Draw 4.’ 

As if all this weren’t enough, tomorrow (Wednesday) will see Donald Trump’s latest ‘tariff-ic’ move, in something his administration are calling ‘Liberation Day.’  With reports that the President is planning on announcing blanket 20% tariffs on imports into the US, a member of the Office for Budget Responsibility told a Treasury Select Committee that such tariffs would ‘knock out all the headroom the government currently has, were such tariffs to be maintained for five years.  Meanwhile, economists at Aston Business School have released a report whose findings suggest that the global cost of a tariff ‘war’ in 2025 could reach $1.4 trillion.

Throw in the recent reports that British Steel is holding a consultation on the closure of two blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, which would risk the loss of 2,700 jobs, and the picture becomes darker still. This then should spark a wider debate about how the UK should react to ‘America First;’ an increasingly erratic White House and the application of tariffs left, right and centre. 

Should the government then continue to seek a trade deal with the USA? Absolutely. Should this also spark a debate in this country on how best to secure and ensure the future of vital industries like steel? Of course. 

The list of challenges facing the government are akin to an economic hydra – chop one head off and seemingly three grow back. Conflict in Ukraine, caught between the tariffs emanating from the US and being reacted to by the EU and China, rising bills at home. 

The crumb of comfort for those in Labour at the moment is that there is still time for circumstances to change before the next election. Growth may yet be something that the Chancellor can achieve and revel in. However, that will be scant consolation for those facing the ‘cruellest month’ this April.