The Road Ahead: Welfare reforms show cracks in government's support base 

The Prime Minister is confronting what could be the most significant rebellion by Labour MPs since the party came into power last year, over new proposals to reduce benefits for disabled people.

It has been reported that up to thirty backbench MPs plan to vote against measures that would make it more challenging to claim incapacity benefits and personal independence payments (PIP). While some have welcomed plans for ‘a right to try’ work without fearing a loss of benefits and support, many of Labour’s traditional supporters have been highly critical of the wider package of proposed reforms.

These changes are set to impact nearly four million people, aiming to save £5 billion for the Treasury. An impact assessment, released alongside the recent Spring Statement, cautioned that approximately 250,000 individuals, including 50,000 children, might fall into relative poverty because of these reforms. 

Furthermore, lower-income households are projected to become £500 poorer annually over the next five years because of the announced changes, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Despite the scale of the rebellion, it is highly unlikely that the proposed changes will be blocked, given Labour's substantial majority following its landslide victory in July’s election.

The planned cuts have drawn criticism from the Resolution Foundation, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, and Save the Children – organisations not typically in opposition to a Labour government. Several members of the 2024 Labour Parliamentary intake, including Treasury Minister Torsten Bell and growth mission champion Dan Tomlinson, were employed by these organisations just last year.

The government is unlikely to lose a vote on this matter, despite reports of up to 30 rebels. However, this is likely to be the sort of debate that casts a long shadow. The political divisions thrown into relief by the planned reforms still have a lot of time to grow before we are looking at the next election – and voters affected by the changes are unlikely to forget them soon.