The ballot box battle: A crucial test for all parties

In just over a week, elections for 1,600 council seats in 24 local authorities, along with four combined authority mayors and two metropolitan mayors, will take place across England. Due to impending local government reorganisation, 18 other authorities have delayed theirs, thus reducing the number of this year’s elections by some margin. Despite this, the 2025 local elections will be a crucial test for the Conservatives, Labour, and Reform, with most of the seats in contention having last been won in 2021.

Despite a torrid few weeks, Reform’s support shows no sign of waning. Even following the spectacular departure of one of its five MPs, Rupert Lowe—who is now suing Nigel Farage for defamation—the party leads at around 25% in polls. One of the primary criticisms of Reform from those within the party is whether Farage’s ‘independent’ and ‘messianic’ style of leadership can carry the party to a meaningful victory in the future. Although the polls show this criticism will likely not have a massive impact on voting intention in May, it remains a serious concern for a party as incohesive and fractious as Reform.

Reform will be hoping to perform well in the Greater Lincolnshire and the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral elections, and perhaps in the West of England also, with the election a four-way race between all major parties. They will also be looking to take control of Northumberland and Durham Councils, as well as the City of Doncaster Council.

While Reform will be hoping to win big, expectation management has already begun for the Conservatives. Today, leader Kemi Badenoch declared that next week’s elections will be “very, very difficult”, with polls showing the party trailing Labour (24%) and Reform (25%) at an average of 21%. Although she was only elected six months ago and has been quick to attribute the negative polls to her “short period of time” in leadership, Badenoch has come under fire for a lack of focus, poor messaging, and even accusations of having a poor work ethic. More concerning is that the Conservatives are on the defensive in most of the contested seats, following victory four years ago off the back of Boris Johnson’s short-lived vaccine-based spike in popularity.

Despite this, the Conservatives will be hoping to break through in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and Greater Lincolnshire mayoral elections, as well as looking to retain control in Buckinghamshire and Wiltshire Councils.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party has been suffering in the polls since the general election, with the Prime Minister showing particularly poor approval ratings. This perhaps explains his conspicuous absence from two recent party election broadcasts. Grim national outlook aside, the local perspective isn’t much better, with negative headlines dominating the campaign. In particular, widespread discontent among councillors over Labour’s welfare policies, the arrest of the Mayor of West England for sex offences, and the fact that the controversial former MP, Graham Jones, is standing for the party in Lancashire, all threaten to overshadow the elections.

Labour will be looking to hang on in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, and West of England mayoral elections, as well as gain further seats across unitary authorities and county councils—it is unlikely they will take control of any.