What’s coming down the track for Labour?

Sir Keir Starmer often presents himself and his government as offering stability, in his pitch to the public when the general election was announced last year, he said “A vote for Labour is a vote for stability - economic and political, a politics that treads more lightly on all our lives; a vote to stop the chaos. It's time for change." However, governing during an era of global uncertainty will put Starmer’s commitment to stability to the test, earlier this month Starmer declared: “The world as we knew it has gone.” 

Labour’s first nine months in government have not been short of action, since entering office they have handed out settlements to junior doctors and rail workers, reversed the de facto ban on onshore wind, introduced reforms to workers’ rights, confirmed support for a new runway at Heathrow and, most recently, recalled Parliament to introduce emergency legislation to prevent the closure of Scunthorpe Steelworks. 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been equally busy, in July she outlined how the previous government had left a £22 bn black hole in the public finances and responded to this by cutting Winter Fuel Payments. In the Autumn Budget, she raised employer national insurance contributions and changed inheritance tax rules on rural estates. In March, Reeves delivered her ‘Spring Statement’ to ensure that she stayed within her fiscal rules which came under significant pressure after the Autumn Budget. 

There was also a government ‘reset’ in record time, in early December the Prime Minister announced his ‘Plan for Change’ and set out six ‘milestones’ for the government to hit.

After a busy few months domestically, attention quickly shifted to global affairs once President Trump entered office and how the UK Government would respond. The introduction of tariffs has rocked global markets, including a 25% import tax on all steel and aluminium entering the US and 25% tariffs on cars and car parts, as well as a 10% baseline tariff on all American imports from the UK. Some of this pressure has been eased by the 90 day pause in some tariffs, and the Vice President has suggested there was a "good chance" a trade deal could be reached with the UK. 

The effect of tariffs on the government’s domestic agenda can be seen by bringing forward the announcement of changes to the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, confirmed earlier this month, to support the British car industry bearing the brunt of US tariffs.

The government were also rushed into a key decision on defence spending by Trump’s re-election. Having initially said that that the forthcoming strategic defence review would set out a “roadmap” to reaching the target 2.5% of GDP on defence. President Trump’s decision to ramp up pressure on European nations to increase defence spending, meant that ahead of his visit to the United States in February, Starmer confirmed that defence spending is set to increase to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next parliament.

Looking ahead, the local elections on 1 May will be Labour’s first electoral test since being handed the keys to No. 10 and, while this is a relatively small set of elections with only 23 councils, six mayoralties and one parliamentary by-election being contested. These votes will take place in 40% of English constituencies so will provide an early indication of how the public view Labour’s start in government.

After the local elections, the months that follow promise to be a busy period for the government, with the UK–EU summit taking place on 19 May. The government is hoping to reduce barriers to trade, such as by reducing border checks on goods, and to agree a UK–EU security pact.

The Spending Review is due to be published on 11 June, where the government will set out their plans for day-to-day spending for four years to 2028-29, and for capital spending for five years to 2029-30 alongside a 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy. The Industrial Strategy is also expected to be published and outline the government and industry’s 10-year plan to meet their ambitions for unlocking investment and accelerating growth across the 8 growth-driving sectors.

A question that has hung over Starmer in recent years is ‘what does he stand for?’, is he merely a technocrat, more interested in the managerial side of government, or does he have a wider vision for the country? Perhaps the coming months will reveal more.