End of the Line? Conservatives meet for final pre-election conference amid HS2 storm

View from Manchester 

By Fraser Raleigh

A ‘celebratory wake’. A ‘last hoorah’. ‘No expectations of salvation from above’. 

Those are some of the descriptions of the mood at Conservative Party conference from those of us at SEC Newgate who are on the ground here in Manchester. 

The feeling is not complete resignation - this is a party still in government for the time being at least - and there is a hope that something (if not full salvation) could turn up between now and the election. 

Panic hasn’t yet set in among the members, who still feel there is just about enough time for something to turn up that could just change the outlook for the general election.

Rishi Sunak’s first conference speech as party leader tomorrow has been completely overshadowed by speculation over the future of HS2, but he will need to give members a clear indication of what he will be asking them to rally around next year when he calls the election. 

But the other shadow over Manchester is the jostling for position for a future leadership contest that will inevitably follow if Sunak cannot deliver salvation. 

Which, if it happens, would make next year’s conference - the party’s first in opposition for 15 years and facing an existential debate over its future direction - an altogether different affair. 

What’s been said

By Harry Brown

“Long-term decisions for a brighter future” has been the slogan of choice for this conference, and one rail-shaped long-term decision has been looming.  

Despite the media reports yesterday, the government is yet to formally cancel the northern leg of HS2, with the PM and numerous cabinet ministers declining to comment on the future of the high-speed rail project in a series of media interviews. 

The formal cancellation is reportedly set to be made during the Prime Minister's address tomorrow.  The PM is expected to confirm that the Northern leg of HS2 between Birmingham and Manchester will be scrapped, with a reprieve for the Euston terminus. Sunak is likely to confirm that the £36bn in savings will all be reinvested in regional transport in the north and midlands, with rumours of investment in large road projects alongside a commitment to Northern Powerhouse Rail. However, it remains unclear as to how that would work in practice, with the project initially dependent on HS2 terminating in Manchester. 

Sunak has provided clues to his thinking, labelling the project's costs “enormous” and explaining since the COVID-19 pandemic, people's priorities have shifted from north-south travel to a greater emphasis and reliance on regional connectivity. 

The decision to drop the Conservatives' flagship infrastructure project for the north, in the city where the line was expected to terminate, is certainly a tough long-term decision around which this conference has been framed.  Despite a massive backlash from metro mayors and former Prime Ministers David Cameron and Boris Johnson, Sunak is finally starting to step away from the cautious approach he felt he had to take after the damage caused by the Liz Truss administration. Fresh from his scaling back on net zero, Sunak appears to be taking a more bullish approach to policy and is looking to show voters that, unlike Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer, he is not afraid to take tough decisions.

The other story to dominate the headlines out of Manchester has been the resurrection of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. It is unimaginable to some to think that the former Prime Minister has arguably been the main attraction almost a year since presiding over a conference and government of chaos.

Speaking at a packed fringe event, Truss called on members to “unleash their inner conservative” as she delivered a speech to the members who elected her, doubling down on the policies she sought to deliver in her 49 days as Prime Minister. Over 60 Conservative MPs have rowed in behind Liz Truss’s Growth Group, a significant portion of the parliamentary party. 

Truss’s speech was at odds with the message coming out of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s address on the main stage. Hunt pointed towards the revised GDP figures, which showed the UK was one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, as he struck a more balanced tone, making no pledges of tax cuts and urging members to stick to the course. 

Whilst there was an emphasis on tech and productivity, the main announcement coming out of Hunt’s speech was cuts to the civil service. The Chancellor said, “New policies should not always mean new people” and committed to a one-in-one-out policy for civil service recruitment. Hunt also said the UK needed to “Rethink the way the state works” and questioned Labour’s fiscal credibility, criticising their newly adopted fiscal rules and borrowing plans to facilitate the green transition.

As the conclusion of day three at the Conservative conference approaches, all eyes will be on the Prime Minister’s keynote address tomorrow. The speech represents the chance for Sunak to set his stall out and show voters what his government stands for.  

With recent polling suggesting Labour’s lead was reduced to 10% following Sunak’s recent net zero announcements, we can perhaps expect further resets in approach as Sunak looks to position himself as the agent of change in the build-up to the next election.