How do politicians think they can get the green transition right for jobs - and voters?

In a marked pivot from the green-friendly rhetoric of the Boris Johnson years, now out of government, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has signalled a step back from the net zero agenda, emphasising a “pragmatic” approach to environmental policies. This move, framed as a response to mounting economic pressures and voter concerns, suggests a recalibration of priorities under her leadership. 

Meanwhile, Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is reportedly considering a U-turn on the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, a flagship green policy set to phase out new petrol and diesel car sales within the decade. This comes after Vauxhall's owner Stellantis proposed consolidating its UK business operations at its Ellesmere Port plant. Stellantis plans to develop the Ellesmere Port site into an electric vehicle (EV) hub, but its plans would also mean its van factory in Luton closing in April 2025, putting 1,100 jobs at risk.

Badenoch's stance reflects a broader scepticism within sections of the Conservative Party about the feasibility and economic implications of rapid decarbonisation – and fear that this issue could drive more of the Conservatives’ traditional voter base to Reform. By prioritising affordability and energy security, she aims to address fears that green policies may disproportionately impact households and businesses already grappling with inflation and rising energy costs. However, this risks alienating environmentally conscious voters and, if she were to lead the Conservative Party back into government at the next election, could hinder the UK’s ability to meet its legally binding 2050 net zero target.

Reynolds' potential U-turn on the ZEV mandate – he has launched a rapid consultation to review the plans –  adds another layer of uncertainty to the UK's climate strategy. The rapid phase out of petrol and diesel vehicles was seen as a cornerstone of the government’s efforts to reduce transport emissions: one of the country’s largest and most difficult to tackle carbon contributors. 

Critics argue that delaying this mandate could stall investment in EV infrastructure and undermine the UK’s status as a climate leader. Proponents of reconsidering the mandate contend that current market conditions, including high EV costs and insufficient charging networks, necessitate a more flexible timeline – and that’s before taking into account the risks a fast transition poses to thousands of auto industry jobs.

Together, these developments paint a complex picture of the UK's green policy trajectory. While the government’s recalibration may resonate with segments of the electorate, it also raises questions about the UK’s commitment to its international climate pledges, especially in light of the upcoming COP29 summit.

Looking ahead, the future of UK green policy appears uncertain. Badenoch’s and Reynolds’ moves could mark the beginning of a broader trend toward more gradualist approaches, potentially slowing the pace of decarbonisation. Alternatively, public and business pressure might prompt the government to reaffirm its commitment to ambitious climate goals. Either way, these shifts signal a critical juncture for the UK, where balancing environmental responsibility with economic pragmatism looks set to define political debate for years to come.