A North East focus

Fast becoming the nation's bellwether region, on 4th May political anoraks looking for clues as to the result of the next general election will gaze northwards to Teesside: the backbone of the 'Was Red Now Blue Wall' that delivered a substantial portion of the Government's current majority. In theory, the result is a foregone conclusion. Labour, who are currently enjoying a 15-point advantage over the Government, should see this translate into votes. 

Both parties are throwing the weight of their machineries into the region. In Darlington, all-out elections will see all 54 seats up for election. The Darlington Conservatives launched their campaign to retain control of Darlington Borough at the Teesside International Airport, which for all intents and purposes has become a Tory HQ since Ben Houchen led efforts to save the airport from becoming a housing estate. In attendance were Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose own constituency borders the airport, and local MPs Matt Vickers, Peter Gibson, Paul Howell, and Simon Clarke. Joining them, was an army of committed party activists armed with glossy leaflets, which before 2019 was a rare sight for the local Conservative Association. 

Labour will be looking to regain control of Darlington Borough Council, which they held for 22 years before 2019 when the Red Wall was toppled. Darlington is at the receiving end of a number of healthy cheques from the Government and Tees Valley Combined Authority, including an outpost for the Treasury and the full redevelopment of the Darlington train station. Labour's local campaign remains focused on the opposite, around issues of poverty and inequality in the town while struggling to deny the massive investment that has occurred in the town since 2019. 

In Stockton-on-Tees, all 50 seats are up for election. Here, local Conservatives pulled off a near-miracle in 2021 by-elections when they gained wards from Labour, Lib Dems, and Independents in key swing wards such as Bishopsgarth and Elm Tree, Yarm, and Western Parishes - pushing the council into No Overall Control. Local Conservatives tell me that this time they are aware that this will be an even tougher set of elections but are hopeful that people will hold Labour to their record on the council. 

Another headache for the local Conservatives is the lack of Lib Dems and the decent number of Reform UK candidates. The lack of Lib Dems helps consolidate the anti-Tory vote with Labour, while Reform splits the Conservative vote. This could prove instrumental in a number of key seats across the council that simply tips the political arithmetic into an unwinnable position in a number of wards. This is the opposite of the national experience in the “Brexit election” of 2019, when The Brexit Party standing usually helped Conservative candidates win Red Wall seats, including in the North East.

Stockton's Labour group faces its own challenges. Several over-budget and controversial council projects such as the Globe Theatre and demolition of Castlegate, alongside another year-on-year Council tax rise, have left them a difficult record to defend. Much of the literature published so far focuses on criticising the government's record on national issues rather than defending Labour’s own council record. 

Results in both these boroughs will provide a good indication of the overall mood of the region, success for the Conservatives would provide some much-needed momentum for the Prime Minister. Otherwise, a poor set of results could see the continued unravelling of the 'Blue Wall' and a reversal of 2019's Conservative progress.