“For the birds”: Badenoch defiant over no deal with Reform

Yesterday marked 100 days since Kemi Badenoch was crowned leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition.

Securing victory over Robert Jenrick in the members’ vote, Badenoch won the daunting task of rebuilding a party that had just suffered its worst defeat. Upon winning the leadership contest, Badenoch said the Conservatives in opposition have two roles: firstly, to hold the government to account and secondly “to prepare over the next few years for government, to ensure that by the time of the next election, we have not just a clear set of Conservative pledges that appeal to the British people, but a clear plan for how to implement them.” 

Few in November believed it would be plausible to overturn such a heavy defeat in one term. However, the government’s plunge in the polls has breathed new life into the possibility that bouncing back within one term is, in fact, possible. 

Particularly if you are going off the latest polling, last week’s MRP poll suggested that if an election were held now, Sir Keir Starmer would see his 174-seat majority wiped out, with plenty of high-profile Cabinet members losing seats, including Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Good news for the Conservatives, you would think.

The problem, however, for Badenoch is that it is not the Conservatives who are making hay out of the new government’s jittery start. It is, in fact, Nigel Farage and the ever-growing Reform Party. Indeed, the MRP poll had Reform on top with 25%, Labour second with 24%, and the Conservatives third with 21%.

Reform is going from strength to strength. Fresh from securing over 4 million votes in July, topping the polls for the first time, and boasting a larger membership than the Conservatives, Farage feels Reform has momentum and should be viewed as the real opposition. 

Badenoch told the Telegraph yesterday that it would take two years before the public started listening to the Conservatives again. As recent history shows, time is rarely something a leader of the Conservative Party can comfortably rely on, especially in the headwinds of a surging Reform Party and the era of Trump, where controversial policy and attention-grabbing headlines are the norm.

Yet time is exactly what Badenoch seems to be banking on. Perhaps drawing comfort from the fact that the gap to Labour has narrowed to just 3% (compared to the 30-plus point gap this time last year), Badenoch may be looking to repeat to some degree what Starmer did in opposition by taking her party from a historic defeat and into government in one term.

It is worth remembering that Starmer’s reign in opposition did not get off to the smoothest of starts, with a by-election defeat in Hartlepool and poor local election results in 2021. Starmer’s plan to show professionalism and calmness and – crucially – that he had changed the Labour Party itself eventually prevailed, and he was able to secure the keys to No.10.

Badenoch insists the difference between her and Labour is that by the time of the next election, she will have built out the Conservatives' policy platform. However, she wants to take stock to ensure that what the Conservatives offer the electorate is credible, well thought out and deliverable.

Dismissing a deal with Reform as “for the birds, " Badenoch spoke of her responsibility of protecting the nearly 200-year institution of the Conservative Party, pointing out that Reform has openly stated it wants to “destroy” the party she is seeking to rebuild.

For now, it seems Badenoch is content with going under the radar, taking comfort in the fact opposition after such a heavy defeat tends to be tough and slow and projecting a sense of calm externally about Reform, drawing comparisons with the fact the SDP was once riding as high as 50% in the polls during the 1980s before fading away.

So, for now, don’t expect to see any suggestions from the Conservatives a deal will be struck.

The proof and test point will be in two years’ time. If Reform continues to ride high in the polls and has returned some impressive local election results and – most importantly, performed as well as polls suggest at the Senedd elections in Wales - talk of some form of a deal between two parties to ‘unite the right’ will only get louder.