​​Stand by me, says Prime Minister, as he warns of ‘painful’ budget to come

​‘Fixing the foundations’ was the key message today as Prime Minister Keir Starmer painted a bleak picture of the ‘painful’ Budget to come in October. With Parliament due to return from recess next week, Starmer’s speech sets the tone for what is likely to be a challenging few months for the government in the build-up the Budget, in which he says tough decisions will need to be made in order to deal with ‘the economic and social black hole’ it has inherited.  

​Far from standing on the shoulders of giants, Starmer again chose to highlight the legacy he had inherited from previous governments as the justification for the decisions to be made in the coming months. Writing in the Sunday Times, Starmer said that the Rose Garden became a “symbol for the rot at the heart of government”, a nod to the Partygate saga and the parties during the pandemic, which had plagued the latter half of Boris Johnson’s tenure in office.  

​On the riots seen across the country earlier this month, Starmer said that these revealed “a deep sickness at the heart of our society, stoked by a politics that chose division, oversaw decline and relied on dishonesty”. Little by little, Starmer will be hoping to rebuild what he describes as a fractured country, but by his own admission this will not happen overnight.  

​On the government’s masterplan, the strategy seems to be one of short-term pain in the interest of longer-term gain: addressing the short-term challenges around the stated black hole in the public finances to deliver that longer term economic growth. Though there have been signs that the economy is starting to recover, the government will nevertheless continue to face questions about how it will address these economic challenges in the context of it borrowing limits and insistence that it will not significantly increase taxes for households across the country.  

​Some might say that this is a risky strategy, but not one that is uncommon for new governments. Goodwill towards Starmer and Reeves remains as high as it is ever likely to be. Still only months into the new premiership, the government will be hoping to ride that wave of goodwill (albeit somewhat diminished by a summer of civil unrest) while pinning the blame on the previous administrations.  

​With this the outward facing situation for the government, there will also be challenges internally within the party. Expect pressure to continue to come from within for Starmer to row back on its cutting of the Winter Fuel Payment for all but the most needing pensions, while the Two Child Benefit Cap remains a deeply unpopular policy with members, MPs, and trade unions alike.  

​Though conference has traditionally provided a venue for these policy debates to be played out, with this being the first such gathering since the party’s election victory, those dissenting voices may have to roll with it for the time being. 

​Though the simultaneous election of a Labour government and reunion of Oasis will lead some to reach for comparisons to the 90s, by Starmer’s own admission things are likely to get worse before they get better as we approach October.